Favourite Win Bias By Course and Race Type
By The UK Horse Racing Tipster
This is an updated page with stats I have compiled from my own large database of racing history and I have posted them here to help you out with your betting.
I use them in my AUTOBOTS form reading which analyses lots of different scenarios and data to help come up with suggested tips and bets. These stats come from one of many reports I run nightly to help find edges on the bookies prices, and it is clear that certain courses have a better favourite bias than others.
By that, I mean that a favourite runner has a higher probability of winning or placing at certain courses than others.
This can be down to many reasons, such as a tricky course to ride, compared to an oval flat course with no hills or dip or the quality of racing that goes on at the course, e.g class 6 handicaps compared to GRADE 1 or GROUP 1 events.
Whatever the reason it is useful to know if you are trying to build your own systems or use mine, especially when picking favourites to LAY or BACK in the win markets on the Betfair betting EXCHANGE or just BACKING on a Sportsbook. The more stats you have, the better chance you have of beating the bookies as they will know this data as well and price horses accordingly.
You may have seen the old page which had the same info but from 2018. So this is an updated list that uses data from 2022's race season and there is quite a difference in courses with the best and worst win strike rates. You can visit the old page here: 2018 Favourite Win Bias By Course.
This new page is now broken down into National Hunt racing and Flat racing, for winning as well as placing as they each have their own statistics and you will find some courses where a favourite has a good chance of winning like Catterick which is 2nd with a strike rate of 52.46% for favourites on the jumps, but only mid table for placing with 65.57%.
Or if you look at Flat v Jumps, Naas is top for jumping with a 55.56% WIN Strike rate and 3rd for placing with 75.56% over sticks, but on the Flat it is mid-table with 36.26% to win, and 69.23% to place.
From these stats I know I will definitely be looking out for value favourites to either WIN at Killarney with a 52.08% win strike rate, and to place with an 81.25% place strike rate, just by concentrating on the courses with a higher than average win/place rate when they are value prices you should make money in the long run.
National Hunt Courses / Racing - Win Strike Rate %
| Course | Win % | Country |
|---|---|---|
| Naas | 55.56% | IRE |
| Catterick Bridge | 52.46% | UK |
| Ludlow | 52.08% | UK |
| Killarney | 52.08% | IRE |
| Sandown Park | 49.09% | UK |
| Navan | 48.21% | IRE |
| Ayr | 47.67% | UK |
| Haydock Park | 47.27% | UK |
| Kelso | 47.19% | UK |
| Newton Abbot | 47.01% | UK |
| Hereford | 46.84% | UK |
| Taunton | 46.75% | UK |
| Kempton Park | 45.07% | UK |
| Fontwell Park | 44.90% | UK |
| Sedgefield | 44.70% | UK |
| Plumpton | 43.40% | UK |
| Perth | 43.00% | UK |
| Chepstow | 42.98% | UK |
| Carlisle | 42.47% | UK |
| Wincanton | 42.42% | UK |
| Leopardstown | 42.00% | IRE |
| Ascot | 42.00% | UK |
| Musselburgh | 41.94% | UK |
| Wetherby | 41.90% | UK |
| Gowran Park | 41.46% | IRE |
| Fairyhouse | 41.35% | IRE |
| Cartmel | 40.63% | UK |
| Fakenham | 40.32% | UK |
| Hexham | 40.00% | UK |
| Newbury | 39.47% | UK |
| Market Rasen | 39.17% | UK |
| Punchestown | 39.06% | IRE |
| Newcastle | 38.82% | UK |
| Warwick | 37.38% | UK |
| Aintree | 37.25% | UK |
| Huntingdon | 36.94% | UK |
| Thurles | 36.51% | IRE |
| Down Royal | 36.17% | IRE |
| Stratford Upon Avon | 35.85% | UK |
| Tramore | 35.71% | IRE |
| Limerick | 35.11% | IRE |
| Southwell | 35.00% | UK |
| Uttoxeter | 35.00% | UK |
| Cheltenham | 34.95% | UK |
| Exeter | 34.38% | UK |
| Clonmel | 33.80% | IRE |
| Ballinrobe | 33.33% | IRE |
| Lingfield Park | 33.33% | UK |
| Bangor-On-Dee | 32.91% | UK |
| Leicester | 32.79% | UK |
| Ffos Las | 32.29% | UK |
| Worcester | 31.94% | UK |
| Wexford | 30.43% | IRE |
| Kilbeggan | 28.33% | IRE |
| Downpatrick | 27.78% | IRE |
| Cork | 26.09% | IRE |
| Doncaster | 24.44% | UK |
| Galway | 23.40% | IRE |
National Hunt Courses / Racing - Place Strike Rate %
| Course | Place % | Country |
|---|---|---|
| Killarney | 81.25% | IRE |
| Gowran Park | 78.05% | IRE |
| Naas | 75.56% | IRE |
| Ballinrobe | 75.56% | IRE |
| Down Royal | 74.47% | IRE |
| Musselburgh | 74.19% | UK |
| Kelso | 74.16% | UK |
| Ayr | 73.26% | UK |
| Clonmel | 73.24% | IRE |
| Navan | 73.21% | IRE |
| Chepstow | 72.81% | UK |
| Leopardstown | 72.00% | IRE |
| Cartmel | 71.88% | UK |
| Ludlow | 71.88% | UK |
| Thurles | 71.43% | IRE |
| Tramore | 71.43% | IRE |
| Hereford | 70.89% | UK |
| Lingfield Park | 70.59% | UK |
| Kempton Park | 70.42% | UK |
| Sedgefield | 69.70% | UK |
| Wincanton | 69.70% | UK |
| Haydock Park | 69.09% | UK |
| Perth | 69.00% | UK |
| Plumpton | 68.87% | UK |
| Stratford Upon Avon | 68.87% | UK |
| Taunton | 68.83% | UK |
| Galway | 68.09% | IRE |
| Fontwell Park | 68.03% | UK |
| Punchestown | 67.97% | IRE |
| Ffos Las | 67.71% | UK |
| Wetherby | 67.62% | UK |
| Newcastle | 67.06% | UK |
| Hexham | 67.00% | UK |
| Newton Abbot | 66.67% | UK |
| Market Rasen | 66.67% | UK |
| Fairyhouse | 66.35% | IRE |
| Catterick Bridge | 65.57% | UK |
| Sandown Park | 65.45% | UK |
| Bangor-On-Dee | 64.56% | UK |
| Newbury | 64.47% | UK |
| Southwell | 64.00% | UK |
| Warwick | 63.55% | UK |
| Aintree | 62.75% | UK |
| Doncaster | 62.22% | UK |
| Exeter | 61.46% | UK |
| Fakenham | 61.29% | UK |
| Uttoxeter | 61.25% | UK |
| Cork | 60.87% | IRE |
| Leicester | 60.66% | UK |
| Limerick | 60.64% | IRE |
| Ascot | 60.00% | UK |
| Huntingdon | 59.46% | UK |
| Kilbeggan | 58.33% | IRE |
| Carlisle | 57.53% | UK |
| Cheltenham | 57.28% | UK |
| Worcester | 56.94% | UK |
| Wexford | 56.52% | IRE |
| Downpatrick | 46.30% | IRE |
Flat Courses / Racing - Win Strike Rate %
| Course | Win % | Country |
|---|---|---|
| Down Royal | 45.95% | IRE |
| Beverley | 45.16% | UK |
| Chester | 41.25% | UK |
| Roscommon | 40.00% | IRE |
| Newmarket | 39.26% | UK |
| Catterick Bridge | 39.25% | UK |
| Goodwood | 39.23% | UK |
| Epsom Downs | 38.89% | UK |
| Hamilton Park | 38.71% | UK |
| Kempton Park | 38.71% | UK |
| Bath | 38.37% | UK |
| Ascot | 38.33% | UK |
| Tipperary | 38.30% | IRE |
| Lingfield Park | 37.39% | UK |
| Curragh | 37.36% | IRE |
| Wolverhampton | 36.93% | UK |
| Salisbury | 36.89% | UK |
| Chepstow | 36.45% | UK |
| Naas | 36.26% | IRE |
| Ayr | 36.03% | UK |
| Cork | 35.82% | IRE |
| Ripon | 35.65% | UK |
| Yarmouth | 35.63% | UK |
| Gowran Park | 35.23% | IRE |
| Windsor | 35.20% | UK |
| Southwell | 34.90% | UK |
| Chelmsford City | 34.88% | UK |
| Leopardstown | 34.26% | IRE |
| York | 34.13% | UK |
| Newcastle | 33.65% | UK |
| Listowel | 33.33% | IRE |
| Leicester | 32.28% | UK |
| Sandown Park | 32.26% | UK |
| Redcar | 31.85% | UK |
| Brighton | 31.85% | UK |
| Doncaster | 31.61% | UK |
| Nottingham | 31.17% | UK |
| Newbury | 30.66% | UK |
| Navan | 30.43% | IRE |
| Thirsk | 30.28% | UK |
| Musselburgh | 30.10% | UK |
| Dundalk | 29.91% | IRE |
| Pontefract | 29.82% | UK |
| Haydock Park | 29.61% | UK |
| Sligo | 29.41% | IRE |
| Ffos Las | 28.57% | UK |
| Carlisle | 27.37% | UK |
| Bellewstown | 26.67% | IRE |
| Galway | 26.67% | IRE |
| Killarney | 25.00% | IRE |
| Fairyhouse | 21.62% | IRE |
Flat Courses / Racing - Place Strike Rate %
| Course | Place % | Country |
|---|---|---|
| Down Royal | 78.38% | IRE |
| Cork | 77.61% | IRE |
| Roscommon | 74.29% | IRE |
| Beverley | 71.77% | UK |
| Windsor | 69.83% | UK |
| Kempton Park | 69.59% | UK |
| Gowran Park | 69.32% | IRE |
| Naas | 69.23% | IRE |
| Chester | 68.75% | UK |
| Redcar | 68.15% | UK |
| Navan | 68.12% | IRE |
| Sligo | 67.65% | IRE |
| Carlisle | 67.37% | UK |
| Galway | 66.67% | IRE |
| Bath | 66.28% | UK |
| Yarmouth | 66.25% | UK |
| Goodwood | 66.15% | UK |
| Brighton | 65.19% | UK |
| Leopardstown | 64.81% | IRE |
| Hamilton Park | 64.52% | UK |
| Catterick Bridge | 64.49% | UK |
| Chepstow | 64.49% | UK |
| Bellewstown | 64.44% | IRE |
| Curragh | 64.37% | IRE |
| Nottingham | 64.29% | UK |
| Chelmsford City | 63.95% | UK |
| Tipperary | 63.83% | IRE |
| Newmarket | 63.70% | UK |
| Salisbury | 63.11% | UK |
| Wolverhampton | 62.91% | UK |
| Ffos Las | 62.86% | UK |
| Lingfield Park | 62.82% | UK |
| Ripon | 62.61% | UK |
| Ayr | 62.50% | UK |
| Pontefract | 62.28% | UK |
| Dundalk | 62.24% | IRE |
| Leicester | 62.20% | UK |
| Newcastle | 62.02% | UK |
| Doncaster | 61.49% | UK |
| Thirsk | 61.47% | UK |
| Killarney | 61.36% | IRE |
| Haydock Park | 61.18% | UK |
| Epsom Downs | 61.11% | UK |
| Sandown Park | 60.22% | UK |
| Musselburgh | 60.19% | UK |
| Ascot | 60.00% | UK |
| Southwell | 59.82% | UK |
| Fairyhouse | 59.46% | IRE |
| Newbury | 58.39% | UK |
| York | 57.14% | UK |
| Listowel | 52.78% | IRE |
As you can see there can be quite a difference between a favourites success at different courses and between Flat and Jump racing, Bumpers have been ignored by this data.
For instance, Sandown has a 49.09% strike rate to win over the jumps compared to just 32.26% for the flat. Also, you can see on the flat that Down Royal has a 45.95% win rate for favourites, and to place a 78.38% strike rate, being at the top of both WIN and PLACE tables for the flat, however, over jumps it is mid-table with 36.17% to WIN but near the top of the PLACE table with 74.47%.
Remember the standard average for favourites to WIN is 33% and for odds-on favourites it is 50%. This table ignores price but we could dig down further and do odds-on and odds-against comparisons if we needed to.
These stats can help you build systems so that you only back favourites at a certain course that have a better chance of winning, or LAY favourites on the Betfair EXCHANGE from courses that have a low win rate and less chance of winning.
Using these stats along with the info in the latest post on form reading can really help you out with your betting ensuring you bet on horses with value, and who have a good statistical chance of winning or losing depending on your system.
Stats are key and I will probably put up some Jockey by Course stats so you can see which jockeys have the best strike rates over each course for both NH and FLAT and maybe the best jockeys for riding horses of different ages as all these stats together should help you build your own betting systems. Knowing when to place BACK bets on certain jockeys on favourites at certain courses or whether to LAY them for instance.
By The UK Horse Racing Tipster
